Thursday, October 4, 2012

Via Daily Kos: A Loss But Not a Game Changer

Via Daily Kos

So looking at the snap polls, it's clear that the president got spanked tonight. It's one thing to play prevent defense, which is what he was doing, and it was another to completely ignore Mitt Romney and let lie after lie stand unchallenged. It was another thing to refuse to defend Social Security.

If you've got 67 percent of viewers saying Romney won (per CNN's snap poll), that means a significant number of the president's supporters were unhappy with the president's performance. Just 25 percent gave Barack Obama the win. That's gotta change.

That said, was there anything in this debate that would change the dynamics of the race? Was anything tonight worse than Romney's Benghazi disaster, or his 47 percent video?

If debate victories led to electoral victories, we never would've had President George W. Bush. And we would've had a President Hillary Clinton. There was no gaffe that Republicans and the media can point to, no defining "moment" that will recast the race. What happened is that Romney looked livelier and more aggressive while Obama looked listless and disconnected. It certainly created a bad night for our side, but nothing lasting.

So what will happen moving forward? There will be aggressive fact checking, which may make a dent in Romney's win, but I'm not confident of that. Romney's favorabilities, if the snap polling is to be believed, will also improve. But nothing will knock Obama's down, and in fact, that CBS snap poll found that people found Obama more empathetic.

And David Mixner has this to say about the debate/election (via Joe.My.God.):

"Let's not kid ourselves the debate was not good for our President. But before we start wringing our hands and wishing things were different it is important to remember one thing. [snip] Never have we as a community been so close to full equality and never have we been so close to losing it all in this election. No matter how we would want the world to be this morning, it makes no difference. Our lives, our future and our freedom are at stake in this election. Don't play with it. Don't be high and mighty about it. Don't blame someone else about it. As a dear friend always reminds me, 'It is what it is'. Just do what the courageous and noble LGBT community have always done in the times of adversity. Fight back. Fight hard. Ignore the odds. Show others how it is done. Most importantly take this nation to a new place in its politics, hearts and values. Let's get the job done."

UPDATE: Daily Kos also shows that the same snap poll "that shows Romney winning handily" also show that neither candidates favorability numbers changed.

So if he didn't fix his favorables with this debate, it means his victory was worth ZERO.

Let me be clear, the only thing that makes Romney viable is if people start liking him more. That's the only thing out of this gaffe-less debate that could impact the broader race. If it didn't happen (and we'll still wait on additional polling to confirm), then this debate will have as much relevance to this election as pretty much every other debate since the Reagan-Carter one.

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